SEOmoz has a brilliant post researching metrics using real log file data and comparing it to available metrics. Their conclusion:
“This survey represents only a tiny sampling of sites in a niche sector, albeit a relatively popular one in the blogosphere and webdev/tech space. Based on the evidence we’ve gathered here, it’s safe to say that no external metric, traffic prediction service or ranking system available on the web today provides any accuracy when compared with real numbers”
Halayuya brother!