Ben Barren hits the mark on Australian Broadband.

Both parties are offering 12 mbs post election, some time into the future. In the States they’re talking 100mbs.

Australia is already on the verge of becoming a backwater in terms of the internet. In 3-5 years time we’ll be worse off again if the US rolls out 100mbs internet.

Is this then a failure of Government, or do we just have failed Government full stop? As I sit here on a 1.5mbs ADSL connection which regularly drops (my home connection is only marginally better at 2mbs) knowing that around the world not only is everyone doing better, they have that choice (no ADSL2 in this neck of the woods).

You know, as much as I’m supportive of the mining industry and the great benefits it brings to Australia, and in particular Western Australia ($34b state trade surplus, 2.7% unemployment) the stuff in the ground isn’t going to last for ever, and neither is the boom in China thats driving it all. What then? What future does my son have in an planet wide information society that thanks to the failure of Government we are set to totally miss? Will the guest worker programs of 2007 be reversed in 2027 when Australians must travel overseas seeking work in the information economy because Australia has become bankrupt, a third world outpost that once had great promise, but missed the information boat? Will Australians one day flock overseas in boats, seeking refuge from this bankrupt nation, seeking better broadband speeds elsewhere?

I literally chocked on the Coke Zero I was drinking when I read this. Don’t have the direct link, but quoting from Trevor Cook:

If ?¢‚Ǩ‚Äù and it is a big if ?¢‚Ǩ‚Äù Labor were to secure the 58 per cent national two-party preferred vote suggested by the polls at the next election, my election calculator says Labor would win around 111 of the 150 seats.

Like hell Labor will win 111 seats out of 150.

Absolute BS.

Anyone stupid enough to believe that 58% 2pp applies to all seats equally should be shot…ok, maybe not shot, but they shouldn’t be making these sorts of predictions.

Do I believe that the swing is on. Yes. Do I believe that the final tally could be as big as 58% 2pp ALP across the country at the next election…well, maybe, it’s not unreasonable. But do I believe that it will be applied equally across all seats, that the Coalition will be all but wiped out: NO.

Word to the wise: swings are NEVER uniform. Firstly they tend to be bigger in the seats with the party on the positive side of the swing currently hold, ie: ALP seats will see huge swings to the ALP: you’ll see 10-15% margins blow out to 20-40% margins.

Polling currently also shows that the Coalition vote is still holding up in the West. 2.7% unemployment and AWA’s equaling huge pay packets for all does that.

I believe, after many years heavily involved in politics and the State and Federal level (now retired) that all politics is local, and literally the size of the swing will depend in large part on the local member. Yes, a good portion of people vote for the party and not the candidate, but good local members switch the equation to being more about them and not the party. People can and do vote candidate first, Senate voting paterns should be enough proof of that.

Here’s my prediction 6 months (or thereabouts) out: I’d say Labor by 10-15 seats (25-30 seat majority), maybe 85-90 max out of 150…there’s a high hope in hell that will see the ALP with 111 seats because simply, the swing wont be uniform, and it will be called on a seat by seat basis. Having said that it could be tighter, as much as I think the Government is on the nose (least thats the feedback I get from the punters) Howard is bound to be holding a rabbit in his hat, he always has before.

Wired tries to do some investigative journalism into the whole Kathy Sierra OMG death threats meme, and doesn’t come up trumps.

If the whole thing was a legal case, would it be thrown out for lack of evidence?

It even appears that at least a good portion of the defendants in this case have now been either forgiven and/ or protected by the alleged victim. Yes, you read that right, the accused have now mended fences…which begs the question: if it was all so bad to begin with, why the silence, why hasn’t the accused been bought to justice (literally, given it was potentially said to be illegal behaviour)…and I’d note, the commenters, not the other victims, Rageboy et al.

I smell fish. Rotten fish in the state of Denmark 🙂

There’s one thing for certain, the words storm in a tea cup and Kathy Sierra will probably go down in history together for many years to come.

The Paul Scrivens owner Wisdump is on the market at Sitepoint. Bidding from $15k with a BIN of $30k.

He hates the blogosphere, but it’s fairly clear we won, because Dan Rather has been reduced to doing guest appearances on Martha Stewarts TV show talking about….wait for it….Exotic Plants 🙂

What goes around comes around I guess, a lesson others should prepare themselves for, because I know a couple of people due a bucketload of Karma Kick Ass 🙂

All those eminent scientist will ignore this, but straight from the Beeb:

A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years….Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star’s activity in the past.They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth’s climate became steadily warmer.

But it gets better, because theres even more evidence to suggest that climate change in the past, including cold periods, can be correlated to sun spot activity:

In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun’s surface.

This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it.

Ice cores record climate trends back beyond human measurements
It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the “Little Ice Age”. Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events – but the exact mechanism remains elusive.

About it getting hotter:

But the most striking feature, he says, is that looking at the past 1,150 years the Sun has never been as active as it has been during the past 60 years.

Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer.

The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.

But it’s all mans fault, right?

If you’re a games developer and you didn’t back the Wii, guess what?

Your profits and sales are down whilst your competition is seeing increasing profits and sales.

Officially.

Dare I say to EA as a Wii owner: sucked in 🙂

Looks like the Scobles have fallen out with Dave Winer.

I don’t know much about Maryam because I don’t read her blog, but I’ve observed Robert’s behaviour long enough, he’s a “you’re with me, or against me” sort of guy, one who takes a disagreement as being a personal attack, a declaration of war if you like, very much in the same way that a spoilt small child with a chip on its shoulder can’t take constructive criticism either, or agree to disagree civily.

Winer is right, hypocrisy was the only winner. The alleged wronged not only milked the whole threats/ death meme for everything they could, they reacted by trying to incite a mob against good folk such as Rageboy…making them just as bad, if not worse, than the original commenters that started this whole thing. Best still, Winer get its. He gets that two wrongs don’t make a right. He gets that the accused wrong doers have now become the victims, and that someone needs to stand up for their rights as well.

And for this Winer has been condemned by Maryam Scoble, and now Robert doesn’t want to be his friend anymore…sort of, at least he’s now trying to lecture Dave on wrong and right because, OMG, Winer commented publicly on being castigated by Maryam Scoble for not joining a lynch mob.

What more can I say other than: grow up.

I’ve shared my thoughts @ 901am again today, but got to say I agree with Tony as well, well considered commenting policies aren’t a bad idea, particularly given that I hate being censored in a comment thread, and I’d be more likely to not participate in discussions at blogs where comments are regularly deleted.

I’ve been thinking about the whole code of conduct thing some more, and trying to be positive, if there was a voluntary one, here’s some things it should include

1. Be honest
I hate liars far more than I occasionally dislike people with whom I disagree. I know people don’t agree with everything I write (ok, don’t all put your hands up) but I hope that people will at least respect me for being honest in my thoughts. BTW I also get it wrong on occasion, but being honest also means admitting when you’re wrong.

2. Think outside your own location/ State/ Nation
I hate it when wankers bloggers in California talk about California like it’s the centre of the universe and the whole world is just like them. It’s not. You don’t have to be considerate of others, but being a self obsessed pretentious wanker doesn’t make for a good blogger.
Note: this rule doesn’t include personal posts obviously.

3. Don’t censor yourself
Kind of ties into 1, but it’s about holding back. Unless you’ve got a legal document/ agreement that prevents you from speaking on things, don’t hold back, being bland doesn’t make for interesting blogging and you’d be better of buying RSS to Blog and setting your blog onto auto, the net result is the same.

4. Don’t say anything you wouldn’t say to a persons face
This is actually lifted from Tim O’Reilly, and it’s the most sensible thing he proposes. If you want to call a spade a f*cking shovel on your blog, only do so if you’d do it in person. If I met Tim O’Reilly tomorrow, I’d ask him for example whether he was raised by hippies? 🙂

5. Learn to accept criticism
Ok, the hard one, and it’s one I have to personally work on at all times, although having said that I’ve gotten better over the years, but disagreeing with someone doesn’t mean you’re out to get them (Scoble) or there’s some sort of massive conspiracy of people plotting against you (Scoble). I disagreed on occasion with a whole pile of people I have a lot of respect for, and if I ever met in person I’d probably have some great conversations with, Calacanis, Denton, Winer to name a few, and I’d think that they’d understand that you don’t have to agree with everything someone does to get along with them…indeed if everyone agreed with everyone else not only would it be a boring world, we’d all be driving kombies, smoking pot, and chanting Tim O’Reilly’s Blogging Code of Conduct over and over again.

If anyone has any other ideas, let me know, a 4 day long weekend and my minds worn out now. Maybe we can put together an alternative blogging code of conduct 🙂

From a Wired Report on TV:

“According to Nielsen, the average consumer [in the United States] now has access to 104 traditional TV channels”

Lets see. I’ve got 10, and only because I live on an estate that rebroadcasts a couple of free to air satellite channels across the estate

SBS,ABC,Seven,Nine,Ten,GWN,WIN,Now,Bloomberg & ABC 2.

The average Australia would have 5-7, my first 5 + Community Access Tv (31) + ABC 2 if they had a Digital Receiver (I get ABC2 in the analogue rebroadcast).

Of course, the real difference is in subscription/ pay TV, and yet Foxtel doesn’t provide 100 channels….and it’s prohibitively expensive if you want them all vs the US where Cable is cheap and plentiful, and you get a pile of different options.

First thing the Australian Government should do with PayTV: drop the Australian content rules so Foxtel can just import 100’s of extra US channels, the capacity should be there now the broadcast is digital.

Secondly the new “Broadband 2” network both parties are promising MUST be free of Telstra: a Telstra free network could/ would also provide TV to Australian homes, the tech is already in use in places in Hong Kong.

Third: the Government needs to push against the US copyright/ broadcasting laws so that US and other foreign operators can set up shop here and broadcast at will via satellite/ cable/ broadband…Foxtel is essentially a monopoly that needs to be broken, freeing up supply is one way of doing it. Imagine a “global TV market”…why not?