Ben Barren hits the mark on Australian Broadband.

Both parties are offering 12 mbs post election, some time into the future. In the States they’re talking 100mbs.

Australia is already on the verge of becoming a backwater in terms of the internet. In 3-5 years time we’ll be worse off again if the US rolls out 100mbs internet.

Is this then a failure of Government, or do we just have failed Government full stop? As I sit here on a 1.5mbs ADSL connection which regularly drops (my home connection is only marginally better at 2mbs) knowing that around the world not only is everyone doing better, they have that choice (no ADSL2 in this neck of the woods).

You know, as much as I’m supportive of the mining industry and the great benefits it brings to Australia, and in particular Western Australia ($34b state trade surplus, 2.7% unemployment) the stuff in the ground isn’t going to last for ever, and neither is the boom in China thats driving it all. What then? What future does my son have in an planet wide information society that thanks to the failure of Government we are set to totally miss? Will the guest worker programs of 2007 be reversed in 2027 when Australians must travel overseas seeking work in the information economy because Australia has become bankrupt, a third world outpost that once had great promise, but missed the information boat? Will Australians one day flock overseas in boats, seeking refuge from this bankrupt nation, seeking better broadband speeds elsewhere?

I literally chocked on the Coke Zero I was drinking when I read this. Don’t have the direct link, but quoting from Trevor Cook:

If ?¢‚Ǩ‚Äù and it is a big if ?¢‚Ǩ‚Äù Labor were to secure the 58 per cent national two-party preferred vote suggested by the polls at the next election, my election calculator says Labor would win around 111 of the 150 seats.

Like hell Labor will win 111 seats out of 150.

Absolute BS.

Anyone stupid enough to believe that 58% 2pp applies to all seats equally should be shot…ok, maybe not shot, but they shouldn’t be making these sorts of predictions.

Do I believe that the swing is on. Yes. Do I believe that the final tally could be as big as 58% 2pp ALP across the country at the next election…well, maybe, it’s not unreasonable. But do I believe that it will be applied equally across all seats, that the Coalition will be all but wiped out: NO.

Word to the wise: swings are NEVER uniform. Firstly they tend to be bigger in the seats with the party on the positive side of the swing currently hold, ie: ALP seats will see huge swings to the ALP: you’ll see 10-15% margins blow out to 20-40% margins.

Polling currently also shows that the Coalition vote is still holding up in the West. 2.7% unemployment and AWA’s equaling huge pay packets for all does that.

I believe, after many years heavily involved in politics and the State and Federal level (now retired) that all politics is local, and literally the size of the swing will depend in large part on the local member. Yes, a good portion of people vote for the party and not the candidate, but good local members switch the equation to being more about them and not the party. People can and do vote candidate first, Senate voting paterns should be enough proof of that.

Here’s my prediction 6 months (or thereabouts) out: I’d say Labor by 10-15 seats (25-30 seat majority), maybe 85-90 max out of 150…there’s a high hope in hell that will see the ALP with 111 seats because simply, the swing wont be uniform, and it will be called on a seat by seat basis. Having said that it could be tighter, as much as I think the Government is on the nose (least thats the feedback I get from the punters) Howard is bound to be holding a rabbit in his hat, he always has before.

Wired tries to do some investigative journalism into the whole Kathy Sierra OMG death threats meme, and doesn’t come up trumps.

If the whole thing was a legal case, would it be thrown out for lack of evidence?

It even appears that at least a good portion of the defendants in this case have now been either forgiven and/ or protected by the alleged victim. Yes, you read that right, the accused have now mended fences…which begs the question: if it was all so bad to begin with, why the silence, why hasn’t the accused been bought to justice (literally, given it was potentially said to be illegal behaviour)…and I’d note, the commenters, not the other victims, Rageboy et al.

I smell fish. Rotten fish in the state of Denmark 🙂

There’s one thing for certain, the words storm in a tea cup and Kathy Sierra will probably go down in history together for many years to come.